同類多產品并存擴散是一種很普遍的市場現象，如智能手機、平板電腦、新能源汽車等。因此，掌握多產品擴散規律不僅對于企業制定研發計劃和營銷策略十分重要，對于消費者選購產品也很有參考價值。對多產品擴散模型的研究有宏觀和微觀兩種建模方法。基于宏觀建模方法的多產品擴散模型已經有很多，但是這種模型存在一個很大的弊端，就是無法從微觀層面解釋宏觀擴散結果，這嚴重限制了宏觀模型的應用。另外，目前基于微觀建模方法的多產品擴散模型還非常少，品牌競爭與代際替代并存的多產品擴散模型還未出現，而且僅有的少數模型均未經真實銷售數據驗證，只適用于理論分析，應用價值有限。基于上述情況，筆者用微觀建模與仿真方法系統研究了3種情形下的多產品擴散問題。
喬健，西北工業大學管理學院副教授、碩士生導師。2006年12月于西安交通大學獲得管理學博士學位。2013年12月赴美國亞利桑那大學埃勒管理學院訪學1年。2015~2018年任信息管理系主任。兼任信息系統協會中國分會、陜西省應急管理學會和陜西省軟科學研究會理事。擔任European Journal of Operational Research、IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics、Fuzzy Sets and Systems、IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica、西安交通大學學報(自然版)、中國公路學報、長安大學學報(自然科學版)、南京航空航天大學學報(英文版)、系統仿真學報等期刊的匿名審稿人。
第1章 緒論··········································································································1
1.1 研究背景及意義······················································································1
1.2 研究進展·································································································3
1.2.1 多產品擴散模型··········································································4
1.2.2 線上口碑對擴散過程的影響·······················································6
1.2.3 社交網絡對擴散過程的影響·······················································8
1.2.4 研究進展述評··············································································9
1.3 研究內容·······························································································10
1.3.1 消費者決策分析········································································10
1.3.2 多代產品擴散仿真····································································11
1.3.3 多品牌產品擴散仿真································································12
1.3.4 多品牌多代產品擴散仿真·························································12
1.4 研究思路及方法····················································································12
1.4.1 消費者決策分析········································································12
1.4.2 多代產品擴散仿真····································································13
1.4.3 多品牌產品擴散仿真································································13
1.4.4 多品牌多代產品擴散仿真·························································14
1.5 主要創新·······························································································14
1.6 本章小結·······························································································15
第2 章 相關理論與技術·····················································································16
2.1 效用理論·······························································································16
2.1.1 概述···························································································16
2.1.2 效用函數的由來········································································16
2.1.3 消費者偏好················································································17
2.1.4 效用函數的類型········································································18
2.1.5 邊際效用····················································································19
2.1.6 期望效用····················································································20
2.1.7 間接效用····················································································21
2.1.8 預算約束····················································································21
2.2 模糊集理論····························································································22
2.2.1 概述···························································································22
2.2.2 概念定義····················································································23
2.2.3 模糊邏輯····················································································25
2.3 網絡科學·······························································································28
2.3.1 概述···························································································28
2.3.2 網絡屬性····················································································29
2.3.3 網絡模型····················································································32
2.4 ABMS理論與技術················································································35
2.4.1 什么是Agent ·············································································35
2.4.2 基于Agent的模型····································································36
2.4.3 Repast Symphony建模仿真平臺···············································38
2.4.4 Mesa建模仿真框架···································································41
2.5 本章小結·······························································································44
第3章 消費者決策分析·····················································································46
3.1 購買決策分析························································································46
3.1.1 消費者屬性················································································46
3.1.2 產品屬性····················································································49
3.1.3 社會環境····················································································53
3.2 評論決策分析························································································55
3.3 本章小結·······························································································55
第4章 多代產品擴散仿真·················································································57
4.1 多代產品擴散模型設計········································································57
4.1.1 多代產品子模型········································································57
4.1.2 消費者Agent子模型·································································58
4.1.3 社交網絡子模型········································································67
4.1.4 總體框架····················································································67
4.2 多代產品擴散仿真實驗········································································68
4.2.1 模型驗證····················································································68
4.2.2 敏感性分析················································································74
4.2.3 購買者動力學分析····································································86
4.2.4 延伸討論····················································································88
4.3 本章小結·······························································································88
第5章 多品牌產品擴散仿真·············································································90
5.1 多品牌產品擴散模型設計····································································90
5.1.1 多品牌產品子模型····································································90
5.1.2 消費者Agent子模型·································································91
5.1.3 社交網絡子模型········································································96
5.1.4 總體框架····················································································97
5.2 多品牌產品擴散仿真實驗····································································97
5.2.1 模型驗證····················································································98
5.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································101
5.2.3 購買者動力學分析··································································117
5.2.4 延伸討論··················································································122
5.3 本章小結·····························································································123
第6章 多品牌多代產品擴散仿真···································································125
6.1 多品牌多代產品擴散模型設計···························································125
6.1.1 多品牌多代產品子模型··························································125
6.1.2 消費者Agent子模型·······························································126
6.1.3 社交網絡子模型······································································131
6.1.4 總體框架··················································································132
6.2 多品牌多代產品擴散仿真實驗···························································136
6.2.1 模型驗證··················································································136
6.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································141
6.2.3 購買者動力學分析··································································146
6.2.4 延伸討論··················································································150
6.3 本章小結·····························································································151
第7章 總結與展望··························································································153
7.1 總結·····································································································153
7.2 展望·····································································································155
參考文獻··············································································································157
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